Opinion is one of the biggest and the strongest pillars of democracy. Elections course might be static but voter’s opinion and choices makes it volatile. That is why polls and predictions play an important role in shaping election results in democratic politics. Polls and predictions offer a snapshot of public opinion at a given point in time and serve as a judgement parameter for the political parties and voters. Let’s learn more about polls and predictions and how they shape political results.
What are Opinion Polls?
Opinion polls in politics are a survey or systematic survey approach to gauge the public’s thoughts and opinions about the election results. This poll is conducted by taking a sample population as the representative of the whole population. These polls aim to capture the perception, behaviour, and mindset of the voters towards the electorate to make further election analysis. These survey analysts use various statistical techniques to determine the sample population so that it actually represents the population and accurately predicts the election results.
What are Predictions?
Predictions are the use of statistical methods and various data algorithms to determine the election results using the polls. This technique uses various ranges of data like historical voting patterns, demographic trends, and others. Sometimes these predictions are made in the form of probabilistic or percentage forecasts or as a representation of vote shares.
How Do Polls and Predictions Influence Voter Behavious?
Polls and predictions can be influenced by voter behaviour through several mechanisms:
The Bandwagon Effect
When the poll results reflect in a party’s favour, some voters might switch their support to the leading party. This phenomenon is known as the bandwagon effect. This works fine for the predicted winning party, as might be able to mint more votes after the poll results.
Strategic Effect
Strategic voting is when voters choose to vote and support the predictable winning candidate rather than the one they supported initially. This prevents the less favoured candidate from winning.
How Do Polls and Predictions Campaign Strategies?
Campaign runners closely monitor these polls and predictions to accommodate their campaign strategies to meet the voter’s demands. This strategy is influenced in the following manner:
Resource Allocation
Such polls and predictions give insight to the campaign managers to accommodate their budget. A lot of resources like time, money, and personnel go into conducting an election campaign. With the help of correct insights, if these campaigns are directed towards meeting the voter’s requirements, it will generate better results.
Personalised Messages
Polls are a perfect way to identify the key issue that resonates with the voters the most. This gives a scope and space to personalise the campaign messages accordingly. If education appears to be the biggest concern, the campaigns will be conducted in a way that addresses the need for education.
Targeted Outreach
The campaign creator extracts the polling data and uses it to target the audience that cannot be tapped earlier. For example, if the poll results that the campaign is not performing well among the elders, they might again address their particular needs and try to reach them as well.
Media and Public Perception
Media Can Shape a Political Leader’s Image
Media have the liberty to choose which polls to highlight. If they highlight a poll that favours a certain party, then it can directly influence the public agenda. For example, if a particular campaign is constantly highlighted in media, it can create a voter’s momentum toward the political party’s favour.
Maintain Accuracy & Trust
Again here, the media cannot entirely trust the polls. These polls are based on sample surveys which cannot be entirely reliable. Sometimes a complete dependency on a certain poll can also backfire on the media.
Framing Public Opinion
The way polls are presented to the media can create a form of image. Headlines that announce the win of a party based on the polls can create a chance of less voter turnout. However, if the race is tight, the voter turnout might be high as they might want their party to win.
What are The Ethical Considerations Associated with Polls and Predictions?
Political Influence
Sometimes these polls might breach the line between information and influence the electoral outcomes. That is why the media should ensure transparency and stay true to the information.
Unnecessary Reliance on Data
Data-driven insights are valuable, however, an overreliance can distract the prediction from accuracy to fallacy as data can be easily manipulated. Candidates and media should work to engage voters on the issues rather than focusing solely on electoral outcomes.
Democratic Perspective
This could be a point of discussion whether these polls make or break democracy. Polls provide valuable information to voters to make their decisions but also overshadow long-term political perspectives.
Conclusion
Polls and predictions play an important role in politics as they influence voter behaviour, protect democracy, guide the political party, and mobilise resources. To keep democracy intact, it is important to ensure transparency, accuracy and focus on substantive ground issues.
